Sunday, November 6, 2011

Shows On The Bubble--Time For Me To Rant

What are the network big wigs even thinking about????

Do they not know that those damn Neilson Ratings are so old and antiquated that they have cobwebs??????

The shows on this list that are likely to be canceled are a freaking joke.  Especially Grimm which just aired it's second episode.  How dare they make decisions like that only after a few episodes and those aren't the actual numbers as we all know.  The Neilson Ratings are a joke.  I think it's time to throw the old ratings system out the window and get a new one.

Here is the list.

Bubble Watch
Bubble Watch: 'Terra Nova,' 'House' Downgraded to the Bubble; 'Grimm' Still on the Bubble

Categories: Bubble Watch,Featured

Written By Robert Seidman

November 6th, 2011

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May.  The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Terra Nova, House Downgraded - Now on the Bubble

Yes it was Halloween, and yes the baseball scheduling wreaked havoc on Fox shows, but I've still downgraded Terra Nova and House to the bubble anyway. Is that fair? Maybe not, but the goal of Bubble Watch isn't to be fair, it's to predict what happens by/in May and I think those decisions could go either way.

Even if Terra Nova bounces back a bit it's reportedly a very expensive show. OK ratings + very expensive isn't a great combo. House's ratings are already OK and definitely more OK than Terra Nova's, but it's in its eighth season and expensive as a result. I can definitely see House being renewed for a ninth season, but with only average ratings renewal isn't a slam dunk.

Once Upon A Time Upgraded, Grimm Still on the Bubble

While predicting anything after only two episodes is folly (which is why after only one episode, both shows were on the bubble last week), I've upgraded Once Upon A Time to likely renewal.  For now, Grimm is still on the bubble though.  Don't take that to mean anything about Grimm's premiere or it's second episode, which particularly for NBC, were great.

The 14% drop in its adults 18-49 rating its second week was not a bad sign, and is pretty typical as far as drops from premieres go (and better than many).  But despite being on Fridays (and on NBC to boot), on an absolute ratings basis, Grimm has less wiggle room than Once Upon A Time, i.e.Once Upon A Time can fall a full ratings point (or more) and still be renewed and Grimm can't.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.

Update: whoops, I forgot to add Fox's Allen Gregory to the table below, it'll be there next week, but I've got it as likely to be canceled.
Show     Network     Status
Charlie's Angels     ABC     Canceled
How To Be A Gentleman     CBS     Canceled
Free Agents     NBC     Canceled
The Playboy Club     NBC     Canceled

A Gifted Man     CBS     Certain Cancellation
Harry's Law     NBC     Certain Cancellation
Prime Suspect     NBC     Certain Cancellation

Body Of Proof     ABC     Likely Cancellation
Pan Am     ABC     Likely Cancellation
Man Up     ABC     Likely Cancellation
Fringe     Fox     Likely Cancellation

Private Practice     ABC     On The Bubble
CSI: Miami     CBS     On The Bubble
CSI: NY     CBS     On The Bubble
Person Of Interest     CBS     On The Bubble
Unforgettable     CBS     On The Bubble
House     Fox     On The Bubble
Terra Nova     Fox     On The Bubble
Gossip Girl     CW     On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie     CW     On The Bubble
Nikita     CW     On The Bubble
Community     NBC     On The Bubble
Grimm     NBC     On The Bubble

Once Upon A Time     ABC     Likely Renewal
Happy Endings     ABC     Likely Renewal
Last Man Standing     ABC     Likely Renewal
Revenge     ABC     Likely Renewal
Suburgatory     ABC     Likely Renewal
Blue Bloods     CBS     Likely Renewal
CSI     CBS     Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0     CBS     Likely Renewal
Rules of Engagement     CBS     Likely Renewal
The Good Wife     CBS     Likely Renewal
The Mentalist     CBS     Lilely Renewal
90210'     CW     Likely Renewal
Ringer     CW     Likely Renewal
Supernatural     CW     Likely Renewal
The Secret Circle     CW     Likely Renewal
Bones     Fox     Likely Renewal
Raising Hope     Fox     Likely Renewal
Parenthood     NBC     Likely Renewal
Up All Night     NBC     Likely Renewal
Whitney     NBC     Likely Renewal

Castle     ABC     Certain Renewal
Grey's Anatomy     ABC     Certain Renewal
Modern Family     ABC     Certain Renewal
The Middle     ABC     Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls     CBS     Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds     CBS     Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly     CBS     Certain Renewal
NCIS     CBS     Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles     CBS     Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men     CBS     Certain Renewal
Vampire Diaries     CW     Certain Renewal
Glee     Fox     Certain Renewal
New Girl     Fox     Certain Renewal
Law & Order: SVU     NBC     Certain Renewal
Parks & Recreation     NBC     Certain Renewal
The Office     NBC     Certain Renewal

How I Met Your Mother     CBS     Renewed
The Big Bang Theory     CBS     Renewed
American Dad     Fox     Renewed
Family Guy     Fox     Renewed
The Cleveland Show     Fox     Renewed
The Simpsons     Fox     Renewed

Desperate Housewives     ABC     Final Season
Chuck     NBC     Final Season

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